Disappearing Acts in China

Gao Zhisheng, a Chinese human rights lawyer, has been missing for a year, since he appeared at a press conference in Beijing with British Foreign Secretary David Milliband. That is, he was missing until today, when he reappeared "right where he should be," according to China's Foreign Ministry. "Right where he should be" is at some undisclosed place, in official state custody. In fact, Joshua Rosenzweig, a research manager for the U.S.-based Dui Hua Foundation, believes that Gao is being held outside the legal system and the Foreign Ministry itself has no specific knowledge of his whereabouts.

The Foreign Ministry official claimed that Gao had, during his year-long disappearance, been charged and convicted of "subverting state power". Asked what the exact time-line was, or when the sentence was handed down, the official directed reporters to ask the judiciary. The judiciary, in turn, has refused to answer.

Before I heard about this case, and even during the 2008 Olympics, I had thought that the common Western perceptions about old-fashioned dictatorship being alive and well in China were overblown. Certainly, my 10-day sojourn there last year gave me the sense that I was just as free there to roam where and do as I please as I am in the U.S. or Korea. The bit where I had to surrender my passport for 24 hours after arrival did make me nervous, though. Still, this story changes things. A post I read on a blog called Seeking Alpha put things in what I think are the proper perspective:

"China remains a velvet-gloved dictatorship. If you work within the boundaries set for acceptable behavior and thinking, you will be left alone or perhaps followed/tracked but not openly harrassed (sic). But if you step over that boundary by embarrassing the Central State, by questioning its authority or its prosecution of policy and laws, then you will disappear or be driven into exile."

I admit I was doing a lot more scorpion eating than policy questioning during my stay.

By the way, does this story strike you as something Liz Cheney and Keep America Safe might approve of in our own country?

Vietnam Dusts Off Subversion Law to Jail Human Rights Lawyer

Go here and here for background on the story.

Government crackdown on democracy across Asia appears to be on the rise. This Vietnam court's ruling comes amid greater tension between Google and the Chinese government after google.ca was hacked last month and the ongoing unrest in Iran, not to mention current trends in Russia (see here). In Iran, nine more pro-Mousavi were sentenced to death recently after being labelled "enemies of God" for what many claim was peaceful protest.

Is this, as some pundits like to say, evidence of what can happen around the world when US power declines while countries like China move at speed toward the #2 spot in terms of economic power? There is, of course, the real, if unsatisfying, possibility that all of these developments are unrelated.

I don't necessarily put much faith in either of those explanations. My take is that these are the fruits of economic volatility. As the economic and political situation in a country become shakier, democratic ideals seem to follow closely behind. In the Economist's take on the Vietnam ruling, the writer even mentions that openness in Vietnam follows a kind of boom-and-bust cycle, at about the same rate the world economy does. He isn't intending to make the same point as I am, but I think the analogy is meaningful.

But how does this model explain what's happening in China, though? In a word: it doesn't. In the case of China, I would chalk up its recent hubris over internet freedom. arms sales to Taiwan, and President Obama's upcoming meeting with the Dalai Lama to its impressive economic success during this recession. Indeed, most of the things it is chest-thumping over now are not new developments.

What do you think?

Google China Hacked

Google.ca suffered a "sophisticated" attack some time in the last few days. In particular, the hackers targeted the Gmail accounts of Chinese human rights activists. The data sought seems to have been account information and email subject lines, rather than message content. Google hasn't accused the Chinese government of anything, but is considering closing its China operations and offices.

Secretary Clinton put out a press release this morning after its officials spoke with Google spokesmen, but didn't report any conclusions, either. The State Department says it will give a full public address on the issue next week after investigating.

One of Google's competitors claims the company's response is just posturing. According to the BBC, Baidu, a Chinese search engine, accused Google of using this episode as a way to justify what is at base a purely economic reason for pulling out. Since entering the China market, Google has lagged behind Baidu.

The Wall Street Journal, on the other hand, praised Google for "showing it values its reputation for providing a secure service to users more than a leading position in a massive and growing market." That paper also points out that, while Google isn't the leading search engine in China, it has gone from a 13.2% market share in 2006, to 35.6% now, a very respectable increase.